Trafigura says oil will face more downward pressure: APPEC update
Trafigura says oil will face more downward pressure: APPEC update
The fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the prospects of a volatile market will be key topics at Asia’s largest gathering of oil traders and executives. That’s entered its second day in Singapore.
The Asia Pacific Annual Oil Conference returned to a face-to-face format for the first time since the pandemic broke out. Attendees are reflecting on the impact of upcoming European Union sanctions on Russian oil flows, the energy transition, and the prospect of a winter energy crisis. All times are local.
Trafigura says price pressure will continue (11:09 a.m.)
There is downward pressure on oil prices and may continue for some time, with the market facing a stronger U.S. dollar and recessionary fears, said Saad Rahim, chief economist at commodities trader Trafigura Group.
Macro factors are gaining as movements in and out of currency markets have a big impact on oil prices, Rahim said. Several dislocations in the market are allowing commercial companies to increase market share, he added.
Russia ensures most oil is shipped to BPCL (10:08 a.m.)
The refinery is buying Russian oil on a delivered basis and the process is going “smoothly so far,” Bilolikar said. U.S. crude now accounts for 20% of Bharat Petroleum’s purchases, he added.
North Korea, China Resume Freight Train Services: Reports
North Korea, China Resume Freight Train Services: Reports
North Korea and China have resumed freight train services after a five-month suspension. The suspension was due to the pandemic, South Korean media reported.
A freight train traveled from the Chinese border town of Dandong to North Korea’s Sinuiju, South Korea’s Yonhap news agency reported on Monday.
Trains had been suspended since April 29, following a COVID-19 outbreak in Dandong.
It was not immediately clear whether the train that crossed the Sino-Korean Friendship Bridge on Monday marked the resumption of regular services. But the Yonhap news agency quoted an anonymous source in China as saying the trains would run once or twice a day.
China is North Korea’s main economic lifeline, which normally accounts for more than 90 percent of its trade. But cross-border trade has been drastically reduced during the pandemic.
China’s trade with North Korea, officially known as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), plummeted to $318 million in 2021, down 90 percent compared to pre-pandemic levels, according to Chinese customs data.
Aid workers and analysts have warned that the country’s isolation has hit its already fragile economy and exacerbated food shortages that have resulted in widespread chronic malnutrition.
North Korea’s economy contracted an estimated 0.1 percent last year, according to South Korea’s central bank, following a 4.5 percent decline in 2020.
Alastair Morgan, the U.K.’s ambassador to North Korea between 2005 and 2008, said the importance of the latest freight train service will depend on whether it ushered in regular operations.
“A one-time shipment of, say, medical goods and equipment or food would be unprecedented,” Morgan told Al Jazeera.
“The resumption of regular cargo shipments is expected to support economic activity and the availability of goods in the DPRK. The economic implications for China at the national level would be negligible. China, in principle, supports trade with the DPRK in unsanctioned goods and favors the maintenance of stability in the DPRK.”
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un declared victory over the coronavirus last month after authorities in the isolated country reported some 4.8 million “fever cases” following a major outbreak in May. Kim, the third member of his family to rule the secret state, has acknowledged the difficulties North Koreans face, comparing the pandemic to the 1950-1953 Korean War.
The North has reported just 74 COVID deaths overall, a record that experts doubt given the country’s apparent number of cases, lack of vaccine coverage, and crumbling health system.
Russia’s Lavrov vows ‘full protection’ for any annexed territory
Russia’s Lavrov vows ‘full protection’ for any annexed territory
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says regions of Ukraine where widely-criticised. The referendums are being held will be under Moscow’s “full protection”, If they are annexed. Raising the prospect of the use of nuclear weapons if Kyiv tries to retake those territories.
Lavrov’s comments at a news conference in the US city of New York on Saturday. Lavrov came as residents of four Russian-occupied regions in eastern and southern Ukraine continued voting on whether to join Russia.
Moscow has described the four-day referendums. Referendums began on Friday as a vote for self-determination. Ukraine and its Western allies view the polls as a Kremlin-orchestrated sham with a foregone conclusion.
Kyiv says many of the regions’ residents are being coerced into casting their ballots.
“Following those referendums, Russia of course will respect the expression of the will of those people. People, who for many long years have been suffering from the abuses of the neo-Nazi regime”. Lavrov told reporters after addressing the United Nations General Assembly.
He has asked if Russia would have grounds for using nuclear weapons to defend annexed regions of Ukraine. Lavrov said Russian territory, including territory “further enshrined” in Russia’s constitution in the future, “is under the full protection of the state”.
“All the laws, doctrines, concepts and strategies of the Russian Federation apply to all its territory”. He also referring to Russia’s doctrine on the use of nuclear weapons.
The minister’s comments follow an explicit warning on Thursday. It was by former President Dmitry Medvedev, an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Any weapons in Moscow’s arsenal, including strategic nuclear weapons, could be used to defend territories incorporated into Russia. Putin had also earlier pledged to use “all the means at our disposal”, including nuclear weapons, to protect his country if its territorial integrity was threatened.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Lavrov’s comments, and Putin’s earlier statement when he said he was not bragging about the use of nuclear weapons, were “irresponsible” and “absolutely unacceptable.”
“Ukraine will not give up. We call on all nuclear powers to speak out now and make it clear to Russia that such rhetoric puts the world at risk and will not be tolerated,” Kuleba wrote on Twitter.
Ukraine has also called for an urgent UN Security Council meeting on the referendums, calling for Russia to be “responsible for its new attempts to change Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders in violation of the UN Charter,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Oleg Nikolenko said on Twitter.
Russia’s war in Ukraine, which has killed thousands of people, is now in its seventh month and many leaders who had spoken at the annual UN summit in New York had entered Moscow for the conflict, denouncing its nuclear threats, claiming it has committed atrocities and war crimes and lashing out at its decision to call some of its reservations.
Lavrov had used his UN speech earlier to justify Russia’s actions, repeating Russian claims that the elected government in Kiev was illegitimately installed, full of neo-Nazis and oppressed Russian-speakers in the east of the country.
He also sought to shift the focus to the United States, claiming that Washington and its NATO allies, not Russia, as the West maintains, are aggressively undermining the system the UN represents. He accused the West of aspiring to “destroy and fracture Russia” to “remove from the global map a geopolitical entity that has become too independent.”
Asked at the news conference if he could foresee future talks with the United States to make Russia feel more secure about what he calls NATO’s invasion of its sphere of influence, Lavrov said it was the West that had broken off previous discussions. His U.S. counterpart, Antony Blinken, broke off talks on the eve of the invasion, saying the move of Russian forces on Ukraine’s border was a “total rejection of diplomacy.”
“We’re not saying no to contacts. And when proposals come along, we agree. If our partners want to meet quietly so that no one finds out, it’s okay because it’s always better to talk than not to talk,” Lavrov said.
“But in the current situation, Russia is simply not going to take the first step.”
He also tried to portray opposition to Russia’s war in Ukraine as limited to Washington and the countries under its influence, even though nearly three-quarters of the General Assembly voted to rebuke Moscow in March.
However, Russia’s strategic partner, China, has been firmly on the fence, criticizing Western sanctions against Moscow, but failing to back or assist in the military campaign. In a surprise acknowledgement, Putin said last week that China’s leader, Xi Jinping, had concerns about Ukraine.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in his speech to the UN called on Russia and Ukraine to “prevent the crisis from spreading” and affecting developing countries.
“China supports all efforts leading to the peaceful resolution of the Ukraine crisis. The pressing priority is to facilitate peace talks,” Wang said. “The fundamental solution is to address the legitimate security concerns of all parties and build a balanced, effective and sustainable security architecture,” he added.
Asked by reporters if Russia was under any pressure from China to end the war, Lavrov said, “You can tell your readers, listeners, and viewers that I avoided answering your question.”
Unknown hashrate discovered most Bitcoin blocks over the past 13 years
Unknown hashrate discovered most Bitcoin blocks over the past 13 years
The Bitcoin network has been operational for 5,012 days and so far, more than 755,000 blocks have been mined. Over the past year, Foundry USA and Antpool were the top two miners. The combined groups collectively mined 18,229 blocks from the 53,510 blocks mined this year. Foundry is the leader this year. All-time statistics show that the pool is the 15th largest and has only found 1.55% of the more than 755,000 blocks discovered.
Unknown hashrate discovered most Bitcoin blocks over the past 13 years
Over the past three days, 11 different known mining pools have dedicated hashrate to the Bitcoin (BTC) network. In addition, during the past 12 months, 27 different known mining pools mined BTC. And all-time statistics state that approximately 98 groups have mined BTC over the past 13 years.
This year, Foundry USA is and has been the leader hashrate, and of 53,510 BTC blocks, Foundry discovered a total of 10,044 blocks. Antpool managed to gather 8,185 BTC blocks, and the two main groups were followed by F2pool, Binance Pool, Viabtc, Poolin, and Btc.com, respectively.
12-month Bitcoin hashrate distribution statistics from January 3, 2009 to September 23, 2022.
The unknown hashrate, also known as poachers, only captured 1.78% of the blocks found over the past year. The unknown hashrate managed to gather 954 blocks in 12 months, as known mining pools have become a prominent force in the Bitcoin world.
However, that hasn’t always been the case, and stealth miners, including Satoshi Nakamoto, are still the ultimate winners of most BTC blocks found in history. The data shows that of the 755,432 blocks mined over the past 13 years, an unknown hashrate has captured 29.90% of the global hashrate.
All-time Bitcoin hashrate distribution statistics from January 3, 2009 to September 23, 2022.
While the unknown hashrate is less noticeable these days, stealth miners have managed to find 225,864 blocks since the network began. While F2pool was the third largest pool last year, the pool is the second largest pool of all time.
F2pool has managed to control 9.73% of the global hashrate for more than a decade and has found 73,477 BTC blocks. Antpool has the third largest pool position of all time with 65,999 blocks found to date.
Btc.com captured 39,022 blocks and Braiins Pool (known as Slush Pool) found 38,376 blocks to date. The now-defunct BTC Guild remains the sixth largest mining pool. This blocks found over the past 13 years.
Today’s top miner, Foundry USA ranks 15th all-time statistics and has only found 1.55% of the blocks mined to date. 12 different pools have found fewer than 50 blocks and four mining pools have found fewer than 30.
Bitcoin mining pool 175btc has found the fewest blocks (22). It is according to bitcoin mining distribution statistics of all time. After 13 years, in September 2022, Bitcoin’s global hashrate and mining difficulty reached all-time highs.
US Sends 'Dangerous Signals' to Taiwan, China Tells Blinken
US Sends ‘Dangerous Signals’ to Taiwan, China Tells Blinken
China has accused the United States of sending “very wrong and dangerous signals” to Taiwan. China told Washington it had no “right to interfere” in any method Beijing can use to “solve” the Taiwan issue.
Taiwan was the focus of 90 minutes of “direct and honest” talks. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi talked. Both countries talk on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York on Friday, a U.S. official told reporters.
“The secretary made it very clear that, in keeping with our long-standing one-China policy, which again has not changed. The maintenance of peace and stability across the Strait is vitally important,” the senior U.S. administration official said.
China’s Foreign Ministry, in a statement on the meeting, said Washington was sending “very wrong and dangerous signals”. Signals are about Taiwan and the more rampant Taiwan’s independence activity. The less likely it is that there will be a peaceful settlement.
“The Taiwan issue is an internal Chinese matter. The United States has no right to interfere in the method that will be used to solve it,” Wang was quoted as saying by the ministry.
.@SecBlinken met with PRC Foreign Minister Wang Yi at #UNGA and stressed the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. He also reiterated our condemnation of Russia’s war against Ukraine. https://t.co/Z5D0xEXMT1
Chinese state media said Wang’s meeting with Blinken addressed China’s position on U.S. “wrong behavior” toward Taiwan.
“We must oppose and avoid ‘Taiwan independence,'” Wang told Blinken.
The #Taiwan question is #China’s internal affairs and the #US has no right to interfere. The more rampant the “Taiwan independence” activities are, the less likely the peaceful reunification will be. We must clearly oppose and prevent“Taiwan independence”: Wang told Blinken https://t.co/1cgJO5SPpN
Tensions over Taiwan have soared since a visit there in August by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. The tension follows large-scale Chinese military exercises, as well as a recent pledge by U.S. President Joe Biden to defend the democratically governed island.
Biden’s statement was the most explicit to date about the commitment of U.S. troops to defend Taiwan.
Wang had a similar message for UK Foreign Minister James Cleverly during a meeting earlier this week, also on the sidelines of the UNGA in New York.
Wang said the UK should “honor its one-China commitment and oppose ‘Taiwan independence,'” China’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
No policy change
The White House has insisted its policy toward Taiwan has not changed. China said Biden’s comments sent the wrong signal to those seeking an independent Taiwan.
China sees Taiwan as one of its provinces. Beijing has long vowed to put Taiwan under its control and has not ruled out the use of force to do so.
Taiwan’s government firmly opposes China’s sovereignty claims. Taiwan says only the island’s 23 million inhabitants can decide its future.
In a phone call with Biden in July, Chinese leader Xi Jinping warned about Taiwan, saying that “those who play with fire will perish for it.”
The State Department had previously said Blinken’s meeting with Wang on Friday. It was part of a U.S. effort to “maintain open lines of communication and manage competition responsibly.”
Daniel Russel, the top U.S. diplomat for Asia under President Barack Obama, said the fact that Blinken and Wang had met was important after the turbulence brought about by Pelosi’s visit.
Russel said some progress has hopefully been made toward hosting a meeting between Xi and Biden on the sidelines of a G20 meeting in November, which would be their first in person as leaders.
“Wang and Blinken’s decision to meet in New York does not guarantee that the November summit will go smoothly or even happen. But if they hadn’t been able to meet, it would have meant that the prospects for a summit in November were poor,” said Russel, now with the Asia Society Policy Institute.
In a speech to the Asian Society in New York on Thursday, Wang said the Taiwan issue was becoming the biggest risk in China-US relations.
“If it is mishandled, it will most likely devastate our bilateral ties,” Wang said, according to a transcript from the Chinese embassy.
Biden urges the world to help Pakistan "underwater"
Biden urges the world to help Pakistan “underwater” (Image: Mary Altaffer/AP Photo)
U.S. President Presents $2.9 Billion Global Fund; calls to negotiate the debts of vulnerable nations
Prime Minister Shehbaz shares his concern about the consequences of the floods
As Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Wednesday urged the international community. Shehbaz urged to remain committed to Islamabad. As it struggles to recover from the devastating effects of this season’s unprecedented floods. US President Joe Biden made a fervent appeal to the world to help Pakistan deal with the devastation of the recent floods. He appealed in his speech to the UN General Assembly (UNGA).
The U.S. president also called for action to address the climate change crisis. He announced a $2.9 billion fund to support life-saving humanitarian and food security help around the world for this year alone. Biden also suggested “transparently negotiating” the debts of vulnerable nations to avoid broader economic and political crises around the world.
“Much of Pakistan is still underwater and needs help,” the US leader said while highlighting the impact of climate change on the world.
“Families are faced with impossible choices, choosing which child to feed and wondering if they will survive,” he said. “This is the human cost of climate change. And it’s growing, not decreasing.”
On Tuesday, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged world leaders to help Pakistan deal with its debts.
Taking a step in the same direction, President Biden called on “major global creditors. It is including non-Paris Club countries. It was to transparently negotiate debt forgiveness for low-income countries to avoid broader economic and political crises around the world.”
He said that instead of infrastructure projects that “generate hugely, large debt without meeting promised advantages”, consider other ways to help developing nations.
“Let’s meet the enormous infrastructure needs around the world with transparent investments. The high-level projects that protect workers’ rights and the environment. Let’s find the key to the needs of the communities they serve, not the taxpayer.”
PM’s engagements
Sharif shared his concerns about the consequences of the floods. he met with world leaders on the second day of his four-day visit to New York to attend the 77th session of the UN General Assembly. This included the managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva. Their talks focused on the IMF’s “continued support” for Pakistan’s efforts to rebuild its economy.
Next up was U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry. Prime Minister Shehbaz took the opportunity to convey Pakistan’s “gratitude for immediate U.S. assistance in the wake of the devastating floods in Pakistan,” an official statement said.
Special Envoy Kerry expressed solidarity with the people and government of Pakistan. He reaffirmed the U.S. administration’s continued support for dealing with the floods. The United States, he said, was ready to engage with Pakistan in rebuilding resilient infrastructure. He would also support Islamabad’s effort to avert such crises in the future.
Later, World Bank Group President David Malpass also called Mr. Sharif in New York. They discussed the World Bank’s continued engagement with Pakistan to strengthen its infrastructure, agriculture, rural and urban development, social services, and economic growth.
Mr. Malpass stressed that priority should be given to Pakistan. Pakistan needs resilient reconstruction through the collective support of the international community. He also expressed the World Bank’s readiness to support Pakistan. Pakistan requires reconstruction and rehabilitation efforts. Mr. Malpass pledged to reuse $850 million immediately to help Pakistan with its flood relief efforts.
U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken also met with the prime minister. Anthony Blinken expressed sympathy for flood victims. He assured him of the U.S. commitment to supporting Pakistan at this difficult time.
Prime Minister Sharif had a meeting with Csaba Korosi, Chair of the 77th session of the UNGA. Prime Minister Sharif emphasized the importance of a comprehensive reform of the UN Security Council. He underlined the need to continue transparent, consultative, and constructive intergovernmental negotiations. That all would respond to the positions and expectations of all member states.
He also expressed the support of Pakistan, in its capacity as the current Chairman of the Group of 77. He advanced the development agenda in the General Assembly and other relevant bodies and forums.
Mr. Korosi expressed his full sympathy, solidarity, and cooperation with Pakistan. He noted that the devastation related to the floods was not the work of Pakistan and deserved the support of the world. There should be a global solution to a global problem, he said.
Powell Says Recession May Be the Price to Pay for Crushing Inflation
Powell Says Recession May Be the Price to Pay for Crushing Inflation
Federal Reserve officials gave their clearest signal yet that they are willing to tolerate a recession as the compensation needed to regain control of inflation.
Policymakers were criticized for being too late to realize the size of America’s inflation problem. Policymakers are moving aggressively to catch up. They raised interest rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday for the third time in a row. And forecast another 1.25 percentage points of change before the end of the year.
That was more aggressive than economists expected. In addition, officials cut growth projections and raised their unemployment prospects. Chairman Jerome Powell repeatedly spoke of the painful slowdown needed to curb price pressures. It is running at the highest levels since the 1980s.
“Powell’s admission that there will be below-trend growth over a period should translate to the central bank talking about ‘recession,'” said Seema Shah of Principal Global Investors. “Times are going to get tougher from here.”
To be clear, Fed officials are not projecting a recession. But Powell’s rhetoric about rate hikes is likely to cause pain to workers. Businesses have become sharper in recent months. On Wednesday, at his post-meeting press conference, Powell said a soft landing with only a small increase in unemployment would be “very challenging.”
“No one knows if this process will lead to a recession or, if so, how significant that recession would be”. Powell told reporters after officials raised the target range for their benchmark rate to 3% to 3.25%. “The chances of a soft landing are likely to diminish to the extent that the policy needs to be more restrictive or restrictive for longer. However, we are committed to bringing inflation back down to 2%.”
That sober assessment is in stark contrast to six months ago when Fed officials began raising rates from near zero and pointed to the economy’s strength as a positive. It would be something that would protect people from feeling the effects of a cooling economy.
Officials now acknowledge, through their more pessimistic unemployment projections. Demand will have to be reduced at all levels of the economy, as inflation has proven to be persistent and widespread.
The average forecast among the 19 Fed officials is for unemployment to reach 4.4% next year and remain there until 2024, from the current rate of 3.7%. But even that new level might be too low. Nearly all participants said the risks to their new forecasts were weighted higher. They projected interest rates to reach 4.4% this year and 4.6% in 2023, before moderating to 3.9% in 2024.
“We have always understood that restoring price stability while achieving a relatively modest rise in unemployment and a soft landing would be very challenging,” Powell said Wednesday. “We have to get inflation behind us. I wish there was a painless way to do it. There isn’t.”
The apprehension of Fed officials about their ability to reduce inflation is also evident in other projections. Even amid a new rate hike path, officials still don’t see inflation slowing to its 2% target through 2025.
If they privately suspect that this means the risk of recession is increasing, they are not saying it out loud.
“I think they understand it’s increasing, even though it’s not yet their goal,” said Laura Rosner-Warburton, senior U.S. economist at research firm Macro Policy Perspectives LLC in New York. “The soft landing or not is out of their control and depends on factors such as improved supply, which they can’t trust or wait for.”
Powell told reporters several times that a softer labor market may be necessary to sufficiently reduce demand. But he also pointed to higher savings rates and more money at the state level, indicating that the economy remains reasonably strong, a “good” thing he said would make it more resilient to a significant recession.
That was met with skepticism.
“There has never been a half-percent increase in unemployment without a recession,” said Roberto Perli, head of global policy research at Piper Sandler & Co. “So it’s very likely. They know it. History says it doesn’t normally happen.”
Perli sees further increases of 75 basis points in November, followed by a half-point increase in December. Several economists raised their forecasts on Wednesday about where Fed rates would peak.
Bank of America Corp. now sees increases of 75 basis points in November, 50 basis points in December, and two-quarters of a point increases in early 2023, bringing the Fed’s benchmark rate to a target range of 4.75% to 5%. Economists at Societe Generale SA are calling for a “mild recession” in early 2024.
Stephen Stanley, the chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities, raised his terminal rate outlook to 5.25%, saying he doesn’t think the Fed’s inflation forecasts are realistic and that further adjustment will be needed to reduce price growth.
“I see the first half of next year as a treacherous time for the Fed,” Stanley wrote in a note.
Whether the Fed finally stops at its current forecast of 4.6% or goes up, its tighter policy will bring job cuts, according to Bloomberg’s chief U.S. economist Anna Wong. Raising rates to 4.5% would cost about 1.7 million jobs, and rates to 5% would mean 2 million fewer jobs, he said.
Powell acknowledged that rates may have to be higher than currently expected.
“We’ve written down what we think is a plausible path for the federal funds rate,” he said. “The path we execute will be enough. It will be enough to restore price stability.”
Putin announces partial mobilization and threatens nuclear retaliation in escalation of Ukraine war (Image: Russian Presidential Press Service/AP)
Putin announces partial mobilization and threatens nuclear retaliation in escalation of Ukraine war (Image: Russian Presidential Press Service/AP)
The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, has announced a partial mobilization in Russia in a major escalation. That escalation places the country’s people and economy on a wartime footing.
Putin also threatened nuclear retaliation. He said that Russia had “lots of weapons to reply” to what he called western threats on Russian territory and said that he was not bluffing. In a highly anticipated televised address, Putin said the “partial mobilization” was a direct response to the dangers posed by the west. They “wants to destroy our country”, and claimed the west had tried to “turn Ukraine’s people into cannon fodder”.
“Military service will apply only to citizens who are currently in the reserve. Those who have served in the armed forces, have certain military professions and relevant experience,” he said.
Shortly after Putin’s announcement, the country’s defense ministry, Sergei Shoigu, said 300,000 Russians would be called up as part of the mobilization. That will apply to “those with previous military experience”.
“These are not people who’ve never seen or heard anything about the army,” he said, adding that students can “keep going to class”.
Meghan and Prince Harry share sweet bond with Kate and William's kids at Queen's funeral
Meghan and Prince Harry share sweet bond with Kate and William’s kids at Queen’s funeral
Prince Harry and Meghan Markle reunited with the royal family once again on Monday as they bid an emotional farewell to the Queen at her funeral.
The Duke and Duchess of Sussex appeared to mingle with some members of their family. It was including the Prince and Princess of Wales, and their children, Prince George and Princess Charlotte.
Meghan and Harry’s sweet bond with their niece and nephew were evident for all to see during the poignant day.
At one point, Charlotte was seen turning around to catch her aunt Meghan’s eye, who in return smiled back at the seven-year-old.
The Duke was also spotted exchanging a smile and some words with Charlotte at St George’s Chapel. They two were sitting next to each other at the committal service in Windsor.
The couple has been in the UK since the Queen passed away on September 8. They attended several public events alongside their family during the ten-day mourning period. This included reuniting with William and Kate on 10 September. It has two days after the Queen’s death when the couples viewed floral tributes at Windsor Castle.
Meghan and Harry would soon jet off to the US as they are no doubt missing their two young children, Archie and Lilibet.
Fed Set for Big Rate Hike as Waters Get Choppy for World's Central Banks
Fed Set for Big Rate Hike as Waters Get Choppy for World’s Central Banks
WASHINGTON, Sept 21 – The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point. It is for the third time in a row and signaled how much more and how quickly borrowing costs might need to rise. To control a potentially corrosive inflation outbreak.
The policy decision, to be announced at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT), will mark the latest move in a synchronized policy shift by global central banks. that is testing the resilience of the global economy and countries’ ability to handle currency shocks as the value of the dollar soars.
While investors expect the Fed to raise its policy rate by 75 basis points to the 3.00%-3.25% range. Markets could be uneasy about the updated quarterly economic projections. That will be released alongside the policy statement.
Those projections will show what Fed officials who are targeting interest rates belief. They show, how long it will take for inflation to fall, and how much “pain” is likely to be inflicted on U.S. jobs and economic growth along the way.
If the past few months are a prologue, that rewritten economic script will point to a tougher-than-expected struggle ahead. A federal funds rate that may exceed 4% by the end of 2022, up from the 3.4% expected when the last set of projections was issued in June, and rising unemployment.
“With little evidence at hand that inflationary pressures are easing, (Chairman Jerome Powell) is likely to re-emphasize the Fed’s commitment to do whatever it takes to bring inflation to target. Even if that means risking a recession,” Deutsche Bank economists wrote late last week. “They will… they foresee tighter monetary policy and greater pain in the labor market.”
Deutsche Bank expects the U.S. central bank to need to raise its policy rate to around 5.00%. 5.00% level is approaching the peak of 5.25% seen from mid-2006 to 2007 when Fed policymakers were concerned about a bubble in the U.S. housing market. That could amplify stress across the global financial system.
Powell is scheduled to hold a news conference at 2:30 p.m. to elaborate on the latest policy decision. His tone will shape whether it is interpreted as a hawkish next step with more of the same ahead. Or as a final bit of rate-hike “front-loading” before the Fed reverts to more conventional rate increases of 50 or 25 basis points as it feels its way to a stopping point.
Powell has had to correct himself in real-time on the Fed’s likely path twice this year. In June, after it ruled out raising rates by three-quarters of a percentage point, a surprise jump in inflation baffled the Federal Open Market Committee. It has pushed its members toward a larger increase. In July, Powell’s comment that the Fed could move to smaller incremental rate hikes was interpreted as an indication of an imminent policy shift.
The Fed chief’s tone has since become fiery and aggressive. With the central bank’s preferred measure of inflation exceeding the 2% target, another dose of tough talks is anticipated.
“Risks are still tilting toward higher terminal policy rates. We expect a relatively aggressive FOMC meeting,” Citi economists wrote Tuesday.
